Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.331700 2.472469 2.625851 2.807108 3.017838 3.258266 3.558213
2025-05-11 2.176640 2.354809 2.558122 2.811875 3.127284 3.517520 4.057472
2025-05-18 2.034451 2.227628 2.454403 2.747530 3.128768 3.629029 4.380651
2025-05-25 1.948144 2.155175 2.404262 2.736511 3.187347 3.814418 4.843833
2025-06-01 1.874633 2.090771 2.355982 2.719015 3.229814 3.978587 5.319282
2025-06-08 1.810021 2.032030 2.308865 2.696115 3.258344 4.122691 5.808297
2025-06-15 1.773670 2.005712 2.300294 2.722673 3.358959 4.396484 6.668935
2025-06-22 1.698382 1.925390 2.215384 2.634835 3.275209 4.342780 6.793979
2025-06-29 1.659714 1.890409 2.188598 2.627152 3.314311 4.511881 7.554925
2025-07-06 1.606814 1.834464 2.130465 2.569516 3.266791 4.511250 7.864240
2025-07-13 1.591751 1.827423 2.138211 2.608765 3.381404 4.847337 9.517048
2025-07-20 1.589096 1.836383 2.168004 2.682794 3.564265 5.379972 13.017156
2025-07-27 1.561226 1.811341 2.150202 2.684449 3.624179 5.671824 16.679790
2025-08-03 1.535661 1.788292 2.133867 2.686819 3.685371 5.991004 23.361462
2025-08-10 1.493944 1.741610 2.081357 2.627386 3.621325 5.958431 26.116742
2025-08-17 1.468703 1.716844 2.059666 2.616795 3.651772 6.204680 42.065787
2025-08-24 1.443478 1.691236 2.035598 2.600582 3.668936 6.421480 103.167674
2025-08-31 1.418429 1.665089 2.009669 2.579597 3.673892 6.605382 NaN
2025-09-07 1.406855 1.657344 2.010554 2.603615 3.775890 7.172020 NaN
2025-09-14 1.368836 1.611330 1.952579 2.523688 3.645402 6.838142 NaN
2025-09-21 1.351276 1.593889 1.937146 2.516658 3.674555 7.133088 NaN
2025-09-28 1.322844 1.560397 1.896522 2.464066 3.598333 6.988730 NaN
2025-10-05 1.317952 1.560209 1.906281 2.499872 3.724170 7.747802 NaN